Market Timing: Risky Gambit?
As a child, you may have had to pass time on long car rides and trips. When I was young, I liked to pass the time by playing a very simple game with a stopwatch.…
Q2 2022 Quarterly Letter
How Biases Shape Market Movements — and Create Opportunities “The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” Daniel Kahneman “Thinking, Fast and…
Understanding Private Investments
As you sit at your coffee table reviewing your investment portfolio, you can’t help but notice the sharp swings in value and think to yourself, “What else is out there? Are we really looking at…
2022 Market Outlook: The Chocolate Twisted Pretzel
Pretzel Logic refers to reasoning that bends back and twists until it does not make sense. (Pretzel Logic also is a fantastic, bluesy song by Steely Dan that refers to time travel.) A great example…
Q3 2021: The Value of the Five-Minute Warning
When my girls were younger, and we were at a playdate or birthday party, I found it very helpful to give them a five-minute warning that we were about to leave. As a parent, you can usually…
Q2 2021: A Campfire Economy: Shifting Toward the Heat
Cooking over a campfire is challenging. If you’ve ever done it, you know what I mean. The fire can be difficult to start, the flame heat varies, the cooking surface is often uneven and the…
Q1 2021 – The Economic Bloom: Recovery Post COVID-19
My daffodils and crocuses bloomed on the same day this spring. This was unexpected. Usually the crocuses are first, and the daffodils follow. This flower rotation is a simple reminder that each spring is a…
Democratic Impact on Markets and Investors
With the 2020 election cycle now complete, we can turn our attention towards the impact on markets and investors. As we do so, it is important to remember that economic and market fundamentals matter more…
Investment Considerations for Year-End
2020 will go down as a particularly unusual year. The pandemic brought large market swings, record unemployment and rippled through industries. In one way or another, it has affected how we live and work. Being…
Post-Election Market Analysis
Now that the US Presidential election results are in, what will this mean for your financial plan? Prior to the November 2020 elections, we shared some of our thoughts on how the outcome might impact…