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Q3 Quarterly Letter

Fall is my favorite season.  The weather is often pleasant – not too hot or too cold – and nature greets us through October and November with bursts of color and activity as plants and…

Q2 2022 Quarterly Letter

How Biases Shape Market Movements  — and Create Opportunities “The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.”              Daniel Kahneman “Thinking, Fast and…

Recency Bias and the Risk of the Recession

Recency Bias

In 2019 investors have begun to worry about the risk of a recession in the U.S. and especially about how the investment markets might respond in a recessionary period.  The year has brought a number…

Yield Curve as Predictor of Recession

Yield Curve As Predictor Of Recession

The past months have whipsawed investors.  2018 closed with most asset classes down after a turbulent December.  2019 opened with sharp gains in most asset classes, reversing prior declines.  These jarring moves have investors searching…

Economic Foresight and Investment Decisions

By admitting to yourself that you have no special advantage, you give yourself an enormous advantage. -Tony Robbins One of the biggest worries for investors is the state of the economy.  Changes in employment rates…

Trends in the Volatile Market

Trends In A Volatile Market

A bull market can be like a long road trip – an exciting journey, but one with unexpected set backs, sometimes bumpy roads and the occasional pit stop.  The global markets are each at a…

Good News for Bond Investors: TIPS

Yield Curve As Predictor Of Recession

Investors often include bonds into their portfolios to earn income and take less risk than investments in stocks and other growth asset classes.  Bonds that pay a set rate of interest carry a unique risk…

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